Perspectives from Brussels (by Elisa Lledó, FRIDE, and Danielle Piatkiewicz, GMF)

Is a new pan-Atlantic system of relations emerging in the Atlantic space beyond the traditional North Atlantic alliance and the North-South dependency? Although there was no unanimous opinion, many interviewees from various sectors in Brussels appeared to be sceptical about this potential scenario (there was a strong EU-US transatlantic space but weak relations with the South), while others claimed that the Atlantic Basin could be more interconnected, mainly in economic terms. GMF and FRIDE, with their respective offices used their networks to interview the relevant actors based on their professional and academic expertise. The main concerns regarding the current state and future of the Atlantic region included, amongst others: the future of the TTIP trade negotiation between the US and the EU, the lack of a cohesive “Atlantic” security approach, the struggle for a united and common energy and climate and environmental policy within the Atlantic space.

Perspectives from France (by Danielle Piatkiewicz and Bruno Medroa, GMF)

The Atlantic Future project explores the concept that new relations are emerging in the Atlantic space beyond the traditional North Atlantic alliance and the North-South dependency. GMF, with their respective office in Paris, France, used their networks to interview the relevant actors based on their professional and academic expertise. The main consensus on the emergence of a pan- Atlantic space was mixed. The main concerns on the current and future state of the Atlantic region from the Paris perspective touched on the following; future of the trade and investment, along with the negotiation of free trade agreements such as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the U.S. and the EU. The respondents identified the need for different priorities between North and South Atlantic. It was strongly expressed that Europe and the U.S. remain the most important actors for the global economy, along with China and India. However, countries like Brazil or South Africa have been rising as economic models rather than as economic powers, and show an increased influence from the Southern Atlantic countries.

Perspectives from Portugal (by Daniel Marcos,IPRI-NOVA University)

The creation of a pan-Atlantic space, based on cooperation between the different regions of the Atlantic is fundamental for the future of the Atlantic basin, capable to deal with the emergence of new powers in the Asia-Pacific Rim and the threats that emerged with the end of the Cold War: terrorism, migration trends, illicit trafficking, fragile states, etc. The analysis of four specific areas – economy and finances, security, people and institutions, resources and environment – has shown the existence of different stages of development of the Atlantic basin countries, mainly between the North and the South, which must be overcome by cooperation in these same areas. For Portuguese stakeholders, the European Union, African Union and NATO have a fundamental role to play, but EU is mostly seen as a role model to be followed for the development of regional and interregional cooperation. The challenge is to overcome the lack of leadership of EU in the last 5 years and the traditional suspicion of the South Atlantic regarding to the North in order to deepen the relations between the shores of the Atlantic.

Perspectives from Spain (by Susanne Gratius, FRIDE)

The perceptions and opinions of Spanish stakeholders on the Atlantic are highly diverse but coincide in the need to include Latin America in Transatlantic relations. Most interviewees in Spain focused on economic aspects and security interests in the Atlantic, while people and institutions, resources and environment ranked second. The overwhelming majority of interviewees shared a rather sceptical view on the future of the Atlantic as an articulated and institutionalized space or a community of values. There was also a consensus on the view that Latin America is part of the Atlantic identity, while Africa is more distant in terms of values and norms, development and common interest. The North-South divide is still present, but most interviewees agreed on the need for a more balanced and horizontal relationship taking into account the power shifts towards regional leaders like Brazil, Mexico or South Africa, on the one hand, and multinational companies and “global civil society networks, on the other.

Perspectives from Germany (by Christoph H. Stefes,Ecologic Institute Berlin)

The twenty individuals from Germany interviewed for this project emphasized the critical importance of transatlantic relations for Europe. Despite its relative decline in power, the United States is still considered Europe’s most important security and economic partner. The interviewees accordingly emphasized the need to conclude the current TTIP negotiations successfully. The emergence of a pan-Atlantic community on the other hand met more scepticism, as interviewees pointed towards the still existing lack of consolidated liberal democracies and resilient markets in Latin America and even more so in Africa. Moreover, they perceived a lack of common values and shared interests across the regions of the South Atlantic and the regions of the North Atlantic.

Perspectives from Italy (by Andrea Dessì and Chiara Rosselli,Istituto Affari Internazionali)

On the whole sceptical about the notion of an emerging pan-Atlantic space, Italian stakeholders converged around the necessity of strengthening the transatlantic relationship as the primary means to ensure a continued relevance on the world stage and greater conformity to EU-US norms and standards among Atlantic countries. While impossible to ignore the rising influence of Asia and China in the Atlantic, Europe and the US maintain certain margins of influence and leverage within this space. Supportive of the TTIP, stakeholders emphasised Europe’s internal divisions, a lack of trust and the persistence of paternalism in North-South relations as the primary obstacles for the emergence of closer cooperation among Atlantic countries.

Perspectives from Poland (by Corinna Hӧrst and Danielle Piatkiewicz,GMF)

The concept of a new pan-Atlantic system of relations emerging in the Atlantic space beyond the traditional North Atlantic alliance and the North-South dependency has captured the Atlantic space. Polish interviewees from Warsaw viewed the idea with a measure of scepticism. Although there was no unanimous opinion, many interviewees from various sectors in Warsaw appeared to be sceptical about this potential scenario stating that the lack of a unified EU and Europe could prevent this idea from forming. The German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) and their Warsaw based office used their networks to interview the relevant actors based on their professional and academic expertise. The overall main concerns regarding the current state and future of the Atlantic region included, amongst others: the current and future state of transatlantic relations, the future of the TTIP trade negotiation between the US and the EU, the lack of a cohesive “Atlantic” security approach, the U.S.’s shift towards other regions, and the lack of a cohesive energy and climate and environmental policy both within the EU and the Atlantic space.

Perspectives from the UK (by Sangeeta Khorana and Christina Stolte)

Interviews in London informed us about the stakeholders’ perceptions in four thematic areas of the Atlantic Future project, which include: economy and finance, security, people and institutions, resources and environment. Main themes of focus were: changes over the past 20 years; drivers for change or continuity; prospective view of the changes and continuities in the region; actors and regional leaders (state or non-state level); relevance of the EU; perceptions on the evolution of the EU’s role in the region over the past 20 years; and finally the convergence or divergence of norms within the Atlantic space. Based on the interview results in the UK, the paper reports that developments in the Atlantic have led to a proliferation of economic and non-economic initiatives amongst various Atlantic actors, both in the North and South. In the North, the North Atlantic community and the USA and EU is undergoing major changes in economic, security and political terms. Following the spectacular rise of Brazil and Africa, the focus has been gradually shifting from the EU and USA and new dynamics is evolving in the Atlantic space. However, a Pan Atlantic space is not really emerging but if the ongoing Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the EU and USA were successful this could herald the beginning of a new Atlantic space. The EU is and continues to be an important player in the Atlantic, and is likely to play an influential role in the reconfiguration of the Atlantic space.

Perspectives from the Netherlands (by Lucy Olivia Smith,Ecologic Institute Berlin)

Twenty individuals from the Netherlands were interviewed for this report on transatlantic geopolitics. While the North-Atlantic relationships between Europe and the US remains strong and established in issues related to security and economy, the project sought to gauge whether there was a budding pan-Atlantic community. Rather than confirm this idea, the interviewees highlighted the emergence of substantial emerging economies in Latin America and Africa and through this observation, emphasized the increasing polarity of the international community that is increasingly defined by diverse axis of power and significance and less so by traditional power blocs. While some specific topics had a distinctly Atlantic dimension, such as the issue of immigration and drug trafficking, most matters related to economy and security were firmly entrenched in the reality of a truly globalised world. When forming ideas of how Europe could maintain relevance, several interviewees saw the EU as a model for supra-national governance structures and demilitarisation and as defining itself in a soft power role.

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